Prezenty i Skubanko. Rząd dał wszystkim, komu teraz zabrać? Oto 7 opcji

500+, obniżenie wieku emerytalnego, wyższa kwota wolna - wszystko kosztuje, a będzie kosztować jeszcze więcej. Rząd będzie musiał zacząć trałowanie podatkowe.

Sytuacja budżetu w pigułce wygląda tak. Program "Rodzina 500 plus" i obniżenie wieku emerytalnego będą w sumie kosztować w przyszłym roku ok. 33 mld zł. Wyższa kwota wolna? W wariancie przyjętym we wtorek koszt dla budżetu to ok. 1 mld zł, ale rząd nigdy nie powiedział, że na tym poprzestanie. Bo obietnica wyborcza to kwota wolna w wysokości 8 tys. zł dla wszystkich, na co potrzeba aż 20 mld zł. Co gorsza, w przyszłym roku rząd nie może liczyć na bonusy, takie jak wpływy z aukcji LTE czy doskonały wynik Narodowego Banku Polskiego.

Już w tej chwili jest jasne, że bez znalezienia dodatkowych dochodów trudno będzie połączyć ogień - jakim są prospołeczne projekty rządu, z wodą - czyli kryteriami z Maastricht, które Polska jako członek UE zobowiązała się wypełnić. A te mówią: deficyt budżetowy w danym roku nie może przekroczyć 3 proc. PKB. Utrzymanie tego poziomu będzie wymagało tylko w 2018 r. znalezienia dodatkowych dochodów w wysokości 5 mld zł.

Dlaczego mowa o dodatkowych dochodach, a nie np. oszczędnościach i cięciach w wydatkach? Bo trudno sobie wyobrazić taki plan w warunkach kampanii przed wyborami samorządowymi (2018 r.) i parlamentarnymi (rok później).

 

Sposób 1

Podwyższyć akcyzę od paliw

Akcyza to podatek pośredni i to tutaj rząd ma największe pole do popisu. Tak się składa, że okazja do jej podwyżki jest doskonała, bo ceny paliw są wciąż niskie. Według danych zbieranych przez analityków e-petrol w ostatnim tygodniu listopada litr etyliny 95 kosztował około 4,50 zł, a to mniej niż średnio w 2015 r. - 4,61 zł za litr.

Skoro benzyna nie jest droga, to można podnieść akcyzę na paliwa. Konsument zapłaciłby więcej (bo to na niego podwyżka zostałaby przerzucona), ale nie na tyle dużo, by boleśnie odczuć to przy dystrybutorze. Dziś akcyza daje budżetowi ok. 28 mld zł rocznie. Jej podwyżka o 10 proc. to dodatkowe 2,8 mld zł. Można zaryzykować takie przeliczenie, bo to podatek kwotowy, czyli naliczany od ilości sprzedanego towaru, a nie jego ceny. Popyt na paliwo jest stały, więc wyższa akcyza nie powinna mieć wpływu na wielkość sprzedaży. A co z ceną? Przy jej obecnym poziomie udział akcyzy w cenie detalicznej litra benzyny to ok. 34 proc. Z grubsza licząc, podwyżka akcyzy o jedną dziesiątą podniosłaby cenę o 3 proc. Czyli za litr benzyny trzeba byłoby zapłacić 4,63 zł. To tylko nieco powyżej średniej z ubiegłego roku.

Oczywiście podwyżka podatku może wypychać część obrotu paliwami do szarej strefy. Już dziś to właśnie w paliwach nadużycia są największe. Gdyby jeszcze się zwiększyły, to mogłoby się okazać, że gra nie jest warta świeczki: budżet miałby niewiele z podwyżki podatku, za to pozostałoby złe wrażenie po podwyżce. O tym, że nie zawsze utrzymywanie wysokiego podatku gwarantuje duże wpływy do budżetu, wiemy z doświadczenia: pod koniec 2002 r. o 1/3 obniżono stawkę akcyzy na spirytus. Efektem był skokowy wzrost legalnej sprzedaży z 51,5 mln litrów w 2002 r. do 84 mln litrów w 2003 r. Co przełożyło się na wzrost wpływów budżetowych z 3,6 mld zł do 4,3 mld zł.

Jednak Ministerstwo Finansów chwali się pozytywnymi efektami pakietu paliwowego, który wprowadziło w życie w sierpniu tego roku. To zestaw zmian w zasadach poboru podatków od obrotu paliwami, których celem ma być walka z szarą strefą (w sumie w ciągu roku ma to dać 2 mld zł). Jeśli pakiet rzeczywiście działa, to pokusa, by podnieść akcyzę na paliwa, może być wyjątkowo duża.

 

Sposób 2

Mocniej dokręcić śrubę w VAT

VAT to źródło największych wpływów do budżetu. W tym roku z tego podatku do państwowej kasy trafi 129 mld zł. Szukanie dodatkowych pieniędzy w VAT jest więc dla rządzącej ekipy naturalnym odruchem.

Ale jak to zrobić? VAT jest podatkiem powszechnym - w odróżnieniu od akcyzy, którą pobiera się od wybranych towarów, VAT nakładany jest na wartość sprzedaży w zasadzie każdego towaru i usługi. Różnią się tylko stawki. Stawka to procent ceny, więc liczy się wartość sprzedaży, a nie ilość. Podniesienie lub obniżenie stawki przekłada się na ceny w całej gospodarce, te zaś mogą wpływać na popyt. Mówiąc inaczej, proste podniesienie VAT może mieć skutki dla gospodarczego wzrostu, więc decyzja o podwyżce nie jest taka prosta.

Rząd na razie ograniczył się do przedłużenia na kolejne dwa lata tymczasowej, dwuletniej podwyżki VAT z 2010 r. (podstawowa stawka wynosi więc cały czas 23 proc.). Uratował w ten sposób ponad 7 mld zł dochodów, które by stracił, gdyby podatek spadł o punkt procentowy. Poza tym całą energię skupia na poprawie ściągalności. I tak w 2018 r. ma ona dać ok. 8 mld zł dodatkowych dochodów. Potencjał jest duży, luka w VAT (czyli różnica między tym, co budżet powinien dostać, sądząc po kondycji gospodarki, a tym, co rzeczywiście dostaje) wyniesie w tym roku według firmy doradczej PwC ok. 45 mld zł. Luka to efekt wyłudzeń podatku, ucieczki w szarą strefę, ale też legalnej optymalizacji podatkowej. Oczywiście nikt nie wierzy, że udałoby się ją zupełnie zlikwidować. Ale gdyby rząd ograniczył lukę do poziomu z 2007 r., kiedy to była najniższa w ciągu ostatnich 10 lat - wówczas do budżetu mogłyby trafić prawie 34 mld zł.

Ministerstwo Finansów stara się zatrzymać uciekający VAT. Efekt: skokowy wzrost wartości zatrzymanych przez służby skarbowe zwrotów VAT - czyli kwot podatku, które podatnik VAT zapłacił w fakturach wystawianych przez jego kontrahentów. Po trzech kwartałach było to 566 mln zł w porównaniu z 130 mln zł rok wcześniej. W zwalczaniu przestępczości ma pomóc specjalna spółka, która stworzy system monitorowania faktur i zajmie się przetwarzaniem danych. Aplikacje Krytyczne - bo tak się ona nazywa - mają podawać kontrolerom jak na tacy podatników, których sposób rozliczania się odbiega od standardowych. Pomóc ma też nowelizacja ustawy o VAT, która m.in. utrudni uzyskanie statusu płatnika tego podatku, ale też wprowadzi kilka istotnych utrudnień w bieżących rozliczeniach. A to też stąpanie po kruchym lodzie: wydłużenie terminów zwrotu VAT może zaburzać płynność w firmach, ograniczyć w ten sposób ich aktywność i w efekcie uderzyć w gospodarczy wzrost.

 

Sposób 3

Zabrać bogatym

Pozornie wydaje się to oczywiste: po prostu podnieśmy podatki dla najlepiej zarabiających. Łatwo to opakować w walkę z nierównościami społecznymi i koniecznością zwiększenia progresji podatkowej. Bo dziś PIT, podatek od dochodów z pracy, jest w praktyce liniowy. Około 98 proc. podatników, którzy go rozliczają, płaci niższą, 18-proc. stawkę. Wyższe podatki dla bogatych pomogłyby też w wypełnieniu jednej z głównych wyborczych obietnic, jaką było zwiększenie kwoty wolnej w PIT. Jak bardzo kosztowne to zobowiązanie, widać na przykładzie ostatniej zmiany, wprowadzonej w pośpiechu w ciągu ostatnich dwóch dni listopada. Kwota degresywna (malejąca wraz z dochodem), której górny pułap to 6,6 tys. zł (a nie 8 tys., jak obiecywano), z której skorzysta 3 mln podatników (a nie wszyscy), a straci ok. 700 tys., to ubytek miliarda złotych w budżecie. Zrealizowanie pełnej obietnicy kosztowałoby 20 mld zł.

Najbardziej śmiałą próbą "zabrania bogatym i oddania biednym" miał być tzw. podatek jednolity. Miał on zastąpić dzisiejszy PIT i składki na ZUS, NFZ, Fundusz Pracy oraz Fundusz Gwarantowanych Świadczeń Pracowniczych. Rząd chciał przy okazji zrobić porządek z samozatrudnionymi, czyli podatnikami prowadzącymi jednoosobową działalność gospodarczą, uzyskującymi z niej wysokie dochody i rozliczającymi się według liniowej stawki PIT w wysokości 19 proc. Często są to wysokiej klasy specjaliści, którzy przechodzą na działalność gospodarczą, bo jako pracownicy najemni musieliby płacić 32-proc. podatek. Likwidacja liniowego PIT mogłaby dać ok. 16 mld zł dodatkowych wpływów do budżetu. W połączeniu ze skutkami wprowadzenia wyższej stawki dla osób zarabiających co najmniej 30-krotność średniej krajowej zapewniłoby to finansowanie zwiększenia kwoty wolnej - a może jeszcze starczyłoby na inne cele. Ale zapowiedź likwidacji liniowego PIT wywołała oburzenie wśród najczęściej korzystających z tej formuły przedsiębiorców. Rząd nie chce tego konfliktu; szłoby to w poprzek deklaracjom wspierania przedsiębiorczości składanym m.in. przez wicepremiera Mateusza Morawieckiego. Wygląda więc na to, że podatek jednolity powoli odchodzi w niebyt.

Co wcale nie oznacza, że prób odebrania bogatym nie będzie. Nie można wykluczyć wprowadzenia wyższej stawki PIT dla osób z dochodem powyżej 127 tys. zł. Nie wiadomo, czy utrzymają się w systemie wszystkie preferencje, z jakich dziś korzystają podatnicy. Wicepremier Morawiecki stwierdził ostatnio, że bogate małżeństwa nie powinny mieć prawa do wspólnego rozliczania.

 

Sposób 4

Eksperymentować

Oprócz standardowych metod czerpania z kieszeni podatników rząd może jeszcze sięgnąć po środki niekonwencjonalne. Mamy już nawet pierwsze próby. Chociażby podatek bankowy, który jak dotąd jest jedynym obowiązującym podatkiem sektorowym. Drugi podobny podatek - od sprzedaży detalicznej - rozbił się o negatywną opinię Komisji Europejskiej. Udało się go uchwalić, ale jego działanie zostało zawieszone do końca przyszłego roku.

Ale na podatkach sektorowych podatkowe innowacje się nie kończą. W branży stoczniowej z powodzeniem funkcjonuje podatek obrotowy jako alternatywa dla CIT, czyli podatku dochodowego dla firm. Stocznia może wybrać, w jaki sposób chce się rozliczać z fiskusem. Podatek obrotowy ma tę przewagę nad dochodowym, że trudno się przed nim ucieka - każda firma ma jakiś obrót, nie ma on nic wspólnego z jej rentownością, nie da się więc zaniżyć podstawy opodatkowania, generując jakiś dodatkowy koszt. Związek Przedsiębiorców i Pracodawców, który opowiada się za zastąpieniem CIT podatkiem od obrotu, twierdzi, że stosując 1-proc. stawkę takiego podatku, budżet zyskałby dodatkowe 30 mld zł.

Inny pomysł, który co jakiś czas powraca w publicznej debacie, to wprowadzenie jednej stawki VAT dla wszystkich towarów i usług. Dziś takie stawki są trzy, co generuje mnóstwo utrudnień w rozliczeniach i może stanowić potencjalne źródło strat dla budżetu. Przykład to dyskusje nad opodatkowaniem dostawy gotowych dań. Niby sprzedaż gotowej żywności jest opodatkowana stawką 5-proc., ale przy usługach gastronomicznych stosuje się 8-proc. VAT. Jedna stawka dla wszystkich wyeliminowałaby nieporozumienia, ale miałaby też uboczny skutek: oznaczałaby wzrost podatku na niektóre towary, choćby właśnie na żywność.

Kolejny eksperyment to podatek od obrotu, który można by odliczyć od podatku dochodowego. W praktyce działałoby to jak opodatkowanie minimalne - firma zawsze coś musiałaby zapłacić fiskusowi. Jeśli podatek obrotowy byłby większy od należnego CIT, to płaciłaby nadwyżkę podatku obrotowego. Gdyby było odwrotnie, to wówczas oddawałaby część CIT. Podobne rozwiązanie prezentowali posłowie z parlamentarnego zespołu na rzecz wspierania przedsiębiorczości i patriotyzmu ekonomicznego jako substytut zablokowanego podatku handlowego. Z innych ciekawszych koncepcji wymienić warto podatek od funduszu płac, który zastąpiłby PIT i składki na ZUS. Albo ryczałtowy podatek równy dla wszystkich przedsiębiorców uzależniony od wysokości płac w gospodarce.

Są jednak też prostsze metody ucieczki spod wydatkowej gilotyny. Skoro mocnym ograniczeniem jest deklaracja utrzymania deficytu sektora rządowego i samorządowego poniżej 3 proc. PKB, to może warto przyjrzeć się temu, co na ten deficyt się składa? Wicepremier Mateusz Morawiecki zaproponował kilka tygodni temu, by zastanowić się, czy nie "warto zmienić mechanizmów kryterium konwergencji z Maastricht" w taki sposób, by wyłączyć z deficytu wydatki na obronę narodową. To niemałe kwoty, bo rocznie na ten cel gwarantujemy nakłady w wysokości 2 proc. PKB. W przyszłym roku budżet obrony narodowej to niemal 30 mld zł. Niewliczenie go do deficytu obniżyłoby go od razu o ponad połowę.

 

Sposób 5

Wziąć przykład z innych

Oczywiście chodzi o Węgrów, którzy do mistrzostwa doprowadzili już sztukę nieortodoksyjnych rozwiązań podatkowych. Wszak pomysł wprowadzenia podatków sektorowych, w tym daniny uiszczanej przez wielkopowierzchniowy handel, trafił nad Wisłę prosto znad Balatonu. Należy jednak oddać sprawiedliwość Viktorowi Orbanowi. Kiedy obejmował władzę w 2009 r., finanse państwa były w opłakanym stanie. Fidesz nie miał innego wyjścia, niż sięgnąć po podatkową egzotykę. PiS, chcąc realizować wszystkie swoje obietnice, również może nie mieć innego wyjścia.

Podatki sektorowe na Węgrzech wprowadzono jako daniny wyjątkowe i miały obowiązywać tylko przez pewien czas, dopóki nie poprawi się sytuacja finansów publicznych. W praktyce przeistoczyły się w stałe elementy krajobrazu podatkowego nad Balatonem. Płatnikami zostały przede wszystkim branże z dużym udziałem kapitału zagranicznego: bankowość, handel, telekomunikacja, energetyka czy usługi komunalne. W 2009 r. wprowadzono specjalny 8-proc. podatek odprowadzany od zysku (przed opodatkowaniem) firm energetycznych; w 2013 r. jego stawkę podniesiono do 31 proc. i objęto nim także firmy ciepłownicze czy wodociągowe. W efekcie efektywna stawka CIT w przypadku tych przedsiębiorstw wzrosła do 50 proc., a dodatkowo te z nich, które dysponują infrastrukturą przesyłową, objęto także specjalnym podatkiem od jej długości, wynoszącym 125 forintów za metr (1,78 zł). Stałym elementem węgierskiego krajobrazu stał się również podatek bankowy.

Kolejnym przykładem jest podatek handlowy, który ostatecznie przyjął na Węgrzech postać opłaty na rzecz inspekcji żywności, uiszczanej przez wszystkie podmioty prowadzące sprzedaż detaliczną produktów szybko zbywalnych, czyli żywności czy chemii gospodarczej. Zgodnie z założeniami z ubiegłego roku stawka podatku miała różnić się w zależności od obrotów osiąganych przez daną firmę. Jednak pod wpływem krytyki Komisji Europejskiej rząd wrócił do jednej stawki w 0,1 proc. od wartości obrotu.

Przykładem podatku sektorowego jest również specjalna danina nałożona na koncerny tytoniowe, która zaczęła obowiązywać w tym roku. Także w tym wypadku stawka podatku rośnie wraz z obrotami. Jeśli wartość ta zamyka się w 30 mld forintów (427,5 mln zł), to danina wynosi 0,2 proc. Za obrót powyżej 60 mld forintów (855 mln zł) płaci się już 4,5 proc. Fidesz opodatkował także przychody reklamowe firm medialnych, a nawet chciał wprowadzić specjalną opłatę za transfer danych w internecie - jednak protesty społeczne sprawiły, że wycofano się z tego rakiem.

Do tego dochodzi masa mniejszych opłat wprowadzonych przez Fidesz w ciągu ostatnich lat, w tym miesięczna opłata od samochodów firmowych (w wysokości uzależnionej od pojemności silnika: za auto o pojemności 1,6 l to 214 zł miesięcznie), specjalny podatek od niezdrowej żywności (w ciągu 4 lat obowiązywania przyniósł równowartość prawie 900 mln zł węgierskiemu fiskusowi), mikroopłata od każdego SMS-a i każdej minuty połączenia telefonicznego (w wysokości 2 forintów, czyli ok. 3 gr), obowiązująca od tego roku opłata za posiadanie karty płatniczej (800 forintów, czyli 11,4 zł - mniej, jeśli umożliwia płatności bezstykowe) czy podatek od ubezpieczenia OC. W 2012 r. wprowadzono nawet specjalną opłatę od sprzedaży pornografii pod nazwą "podatku kulturalnego", która służy finansowaniu Narodowego Funduszu Kultury. Jednak wartość wpływów z tego tytułu - 100 mln forintów (1,42 mln zł) w tym roku to zaledwie 0,92 proc. budżetu funduszu. Jeśli z Węgier płynie w związku z tym jakaś lekcja, to taka, że pieniądze dosłownie leżą na ulicy.

 

Sposób 6

Odwołać się do poczucia odpowiedzialności

Rząd mógłby sięgnąć po jeszcze bardziej nieortodoksyjne rozwiązania, np. specjalny podatek od wynagrodzeń, płacony tylko przez pracodawców, służący finansowaniu polityki rodzinnej. W końcu dbałość o rodzinę jest obowiązkiem nie tylko państwa, biznes więc mógłby się do tego dorzucić w ramach społecznej odpowiedzialności. Brzmi egzotycznie? Niekoniecznie. Tak to działa w Austrii. Od 1967 r. istnieje tam Familienlastenausgleichsfonds, czyli Fundusz Wyrównywania Obciążeń Rodziny, w skrócie FLAF - który finansowany jest w większości właśnie ze specjalnej składki naliczanej od wynagrodzeń. W Austrii, podobnie jak w Polsce, pracodawca i pracownik zrzucają się na ubezpieczenie emerytalne, rentowe etc. Ale tylko pracodawcy odprowadzają 4,5 proc. wynagrodzenia brutto na konto FLAF właśnie (chociaż parlament austriacki przegłosował stopniowe zmniejszenie daniny). Budżet funduszu w 2016 r. wyniesie 7,09 mld euro, z czego 82,5 proc. będą stanowiły wpłaty od pracodawców. Resztę dopłaca budżet.

Z tych pieniędzy finansowany jest zasiłek pod nazwą Familienbeihilfe, czyli pomoc rodzinna. Jego wysokość uzależniona jest od wieku dziecka. I tak od stycznia 2016 r. wynosi on 111,80 euro w przypadku pociech do 3. roku życia (przy obecnym kursie złotówki do wspólnej waluty jest to prawie 500 zł); ale już na przykład na 19-letnie dziecko uzyskamy 162 euro. Wysokość zasiłku ulega zmianie wraz z liczbą dzieci; tak więc w przypadku piątki szkrabów do każdego progu Familienbehilfe dolicza się 31,4 euro. Przy czym FLAF finansuje nie tylko zasiłki na dzieci, ale też dopłaty do kupna szkolnych podręczników czy koszty przejazdów do szkoły.

Szybkie szacunki odnośnie do tego, jakby to wyglądało w Polsce. Na koniec III kwartału tego roku nad Wisłą 12,9 mln osób utrzymywało się z pracy najemnej. Jeśli przemnożymy tę kwotę przez średnie wynagrodzenie w gospodarce narodowej - 4055 zł - a składka wynosiłaby 2 proc., to budżet wzbogaciłby się o 12,5 mld zł. Podniesienie jej do 4 proc. dałoby 25,1 mld zł. A to ciut więcej niż w przyszłym roku ma wynieść koszt programu "Rodzina 500 plus".

 

Sposób 7

Wojna z Brukselą

Rządowi zawsze zostaje "opcja nuklearna": próba wyperswadowania Brukseli, że sztywne trzymanie się kryteriów z Maastricht to nonsens i dławienie gospodarki. Komisja Europejska jest w stanie przymknąć oko na dyscyplinę budżetową w krajach członkowskich, o ile uwierzy, że problemy z deficytem są przejściowe, a nie strukturalne. Niebagatelne są również stosunki między Brukselą a danym państwem członkowskim. A te, oględnie mówiąc, nie są ostatnio w przypadku Warszawy najlepsze.

Źródło:Dziennik Gazeta Prawna/interia

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